At A Glance

• Since January 2024, Zambia has experienced a severe drought which has heightened water scarcity, impacting its energy security as well as agricultural production.

• For readers connected to hydro-dependent electricity grids, this development exposes the fragility of this renewable energy source in light of worsening climate change.

• Zambia has since looked towards alternative sources of energy, recently approving the construction of a Chinese coal power plant and partnering with a Canadian solar manufacturer.

What is happening in Zambia?

Since January 2024, the Southern African country has experienced a severe drought, considered the worst in the last two decades. In Zambia, this water scarcity has plunged the country into a severe energy crisis due to its heavy reliance on hydrological energy. Moreover, the drought has contributed to increases in the cost of living driven by food prices.

Zambia’s energy sector is heavily concentrated around hydrological power, accounting for 83% of the electricity consumed. The largest hydrological power plant is the Kariba Dam located at the Zambezi River basin on the border between Zambia and Zimbabwe. The Energy Minister of Zimbabwe, with whom Zambia shares the Dam, stated that at current reservoir levels, the dam can only produce 10% of its capacity in electricity. This drastic reduction in electricity generation has spread through the grid, resulting in frequent power outages.

Furthermore, the drought has had a significant effect on agricultural production. Zambia’s primary food grain is maize, which is used to make their national dish Nshima, eaten twice a day by half its population. The drought has cut production of maize in half, threatening food security and forcing Zambia to import the crop from neighbouring countries. To address crop failure, authorities have encouraged the adoption of winter maize, a more resilient crop that may withstand drought.  

To address the energy crisis, Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation (ZESCO), the only public power utility company in Zambia, implemented daily load shedding or scheduled power cuts. In September, this amounted to only four hours of electricity a day to keep unpredictable blackouts to a minimum and prioritise essential services such as hospitals. Since then, the Zambian government has also aimed to diversify its energy supply away from hydropower.

In March, the government struck a deal with Canadian solar supplier SkyPower Global, agreeing to the purchase of 1000 megawatts (MW) of solar power, which would amount to 41% of Zambia’s peak electricity demand. Similarly, the government approved a $900 million (£710 million) proposal to construct a coal power plant, by a Chinese-owned company, that could generate 600 MW, amounting to 25% of peak electricity demand. This expansion into alternative energy sources could aid in addressing the gap in electricity access, with currently only 42% of Zambian’s having access to the electricity grid according to the World Bank. 

What is in it for you?

For readers in Zambia, the 2024 drought has had a significant impact on individuals livelihoods and the economy. In September, ZESCO said it was unable to supply all the country’s hospitals with electricity, forcing some patients to be turned away by staff. The crop failure that was caused by the drought has also forced food prices to jump. According to Zambia’s Statistics Agency, August 2024, six months into the drought, the inflation rate reached a high of 15.5%, primarily driven by food prices. Despite the drought slowly subsiding with rainfall returning, power outages remain frequent and food prices are unlikely to fall for Zambian residents. 

Zambia’s primary economic driver is mining, specifically copper, which accounts for 70% of export earnings. In July, ZESCO asked mining companies to reduce normal power use by 40%. Despite this, mining operations largely remained intact. While some of this can be attributed to prioritisation by the government, mining companies were also able to import electricity from South Africa, utilising public power lines.

Neighbouring countries have also been affected by the drought. Zimbabwe, which Zambia shares the Kariba dam with, has experienced similar effects on hydropower and crop yields. However, Zimbabwe and other countries impacted by the drought have more diverse energy portfolios with a higher share of fossil fuels, sparing them from blackouts. That being said, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization, the whole region has experienced a rise in food prices particularly in maize. Coupled with depreciating currency, these countries such as Zimbabwe, Botswana, and Zambia have paid higher prices for grain imports to combat food insecurity. 

For readers in countries which heavily rely on hydropower, this development signifies potential difficulties with hydropower as a renewable and reliable source of energy. The worsening impacts of climate change have heightened the frequency and severity of climate events such as droughts, which greatly impacts the effectiveness of hydropower through drying reservoirs. Countries such as Norway (89%), Ethiopia (96%), and Uganda (86%) all heavily depend on hydropower for electricity, while China has heavily invested in expanding their hydro capacity as part of their energy transition. Future droughts in these countries could similarly result in energy insecurity.

The situation also highlights the issues around transitioning to renewable energy sources. Zambia is currently considering a $900 million (£710 million) coal power plant to ensure a more reliable and diverse energy supply. However, it is currently estimated that coal is contributing around 0.3°C of the 1°C increase in global average temperature, which is the driving force behind the frequency and severity of droughts. Insofar, the continuity and return of coal as a source of energy is contributing to climate change that is causing the unreliability of hydropower to begin with. This makes countries’ attempt to transition to renewables such as hydropower futile if climate change induced droughts continue to impact their reliability.

What happens next?

The drought is expected to begin to subside in early 2025, with rainfall to return to normal levels. While this may alleviate some of the pressure on agriculture the energy crisis is likely going to face continuous strain. Water reservoirs have been drained to a level where a return of rainfall will still take an extended period, with some estimates reaching 3 years for the Kariba dam to return to full capacity.

The Zambian government is currently exploring alternative energy sources, mainly coal and solar. While coal undoubtedly would provide reliable energy, the emissions could contribute to climate-induced droughts in the future. Zambia is uniquely positioned towards developing solar and wind capacity, per their high reserves of copper that is needed in its production. While it is likely that Zambia will pursue a combination of fossil fuels and renewables to address its energy insecurity, the make-up will likely be determined by financing opportunities through multilateral initiatives and foreign investment rather than political support.

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