At a glace

• Georgia's ruling party has nominated far-right politician Mikheil Kavelashvili as their presidential candidate amid contested elections, raising concerns over democratic backsliding, Russian alignment, and stalled EU ambitions in a deepening political crisis.

• For Georgian readers with aspirations for EU integration, Mikheil Kavelashvili's potential presidency may hinder Georgia's EU aspirations, deepen political divisions, and shift the country further toward Russia, diminishing prospects for European integration and fostering uncertainty among pro-European citizens.

• The protests in Georgia, driven by suspended EU talks and government alignment with Russia, may escalate the current unrest, invite Western sanctions, and deepen rifts with allies, while Russia seeks to exploit the turmoil.

  
  

What is happening in Georgia?

Georgia’s governing party, Georgian Dream, has nominated Mikheil Kavelashvili, a far-right politician and former footballer, for the largely ceremonial presidency, with elections set for December 14. Billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, the honorary yet hugely influential chairman of Georgian Dream, described Kavelashvili as “the embodiment of a Georgian man”. 

Bidzina Ivanishvili, founder of Georgia's ruling pro-Russian Georgian Dream party, has consolidated nearly absolute control over the country’s political apparatus, leveraging his wealth and influence to shape policies aligned with his authoritarian ambitions. Despite accusations of being a Kremlin agent, experts argue his alignment with Russia stems from shared interests, enabling him to maintain power and resist protests and boycotts pushing for Western democratic reforms that could threaten his authority and economic interests.

Kavelashvili, a former Premier League striker for Manchester City, transitioned into politics after his football career. He is known for his anti-Western rhetoric as leader of People’s Power, a Georgian Dream splinter group, often opposing EU integration and aligning with pro-Russian narratives. Although the presidency is largely ceremonial, Kavelashvili’s victory is almost certain given the ruling party's dominance over the 300-seat electoral college.

The nomination follows turmoil from the October 26 parliamentary elections, which were widely viewed as a referendum on Georgia's EU aspirations but marred by allegations of electoral fraud and Russian influence. Outgoing President Salome Zurabishvili has called the elections unconstitutional, which was also concluded by the European Parliament and is seeking to annul the results. Despite her claims, Georgian Dream opened the new parliament amid an opposition boycott.

Kavelashvili’s candidacy raises concerns about Georgia’s drift away from the West, as EU and U.S. officials criticize Georgian Dream for democratic backsliding, Russian alignment, and controversial laws on “foreign agents” and LGBTQ rights.

Kavelashvili has accused opposition groups of orchestrating a U.S.-backed plan for revolution and destabilization, aligning his rhetoric with the ruling party’s claims of external interference. European observers noted the October elections were plagued by bribery, double voting, and violence, further deepening Georgia’s political crisis. Meanwhile, constitutional experts argue that decisions by the new parliament remain invalid pending the resolution of Zurabishvili’s legal challenge.

What is in it for you?

For Georgians aspiring to join the EU, which consists of 80% of the population according to a poll conducted by the U.S.-based National Democratic Institute in December last year, Mikheil Kavelashvili's likely presidency, backed by the Russia-friendly Georgian Dream party, signals a potential setback. His anti-Western stance and alignment with a party accused of democratic backsliding may further strain Georgia's EU aspirations, intensify divisions between pro-European citizens and the government, and deepen the country's pivot toward Russia. This could reduce opportunities for EU integration, funding, and support while exacerbating increased political uncertainty and societal disillusionment.

If you are an aspiring EU citizen, you may face the risk of state repression, as demonstrated by the recent use of tear gas, water cannons, and the 107 arrests made on Friday which has not deterred the clashes which reached the fourth night on December 3. This could lead to fear and uncertainty among fellow activists and their supporters. The clashes between pro-EU citizens and government supporters could deepen societal divisions. Those advocating for closer ties with the EU might encounter hostility or marginalization, especially in rural or conservative areas where sentiments might lean toward Russia or nationalist agendas.

However, the recent protests, especially in the capital Tbilisi, show that many citizens are willing to fight for their European aspirations. This could inspire greater civic engagement, with more people advocating for democratic reforms and alignment with EU standards.

Therefore, in the short term the political turmoil could hurt the state’s economy, especially if trade routes are disrupted or foreign aid is reduced. This might negatively impact your current quality of life, but it might also spur citizens to demand better governance and policies aligned with EU standards.

In the long term, if the protests succeed in pressuring the government to reopen EU talks or adopt reforms, it could set the stage for a stronger push toward EU membership. Citizens may take pride in influencing the country's future and laying the groundwork for eventual accession with the European Commission stating, “the door to the EU remains open”, on December 1.

What happens next?

The protests could grow larger and more widespread, fuelled by public frustration over the suspended EU talks, contested elections, and the government's perceived alignment with Russia. This may lead to increased domestic unrest and further crackdowns by security forces. Russia could attempt to exploit the unrest to increase its influence in Georgia, either through covert support for the ruling party or by backing narratives that frame the protests as Western interference.

Alternatively, the EU and U.S. may escalate diplomatic efforts or impose sanctions on Georgia's leadership, aiming to restore democratic norms and support protesters. The US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller stated in a recent release, "The United States condemns the excessive use of force by police against Georgians seeking to exercise their rights to assembly and expression, including their freedom to peacefully protest”. If this continues, it could deepen the rift between Georgia and Western allies, especially if the government remains defiant.

The Polis Team in Melbourne